Expected Goals

2018-19 Bundesliga season’s worst misses, best goals & easiest finishes – Football Article

Here’s a round-up of the finest goals, worst misses and easiest finishes in expected goals (xG) terms of the 2018-19 Bundesliga season to date. Pretty much everyone is familiar with xG nowadays, but just be sure: it measures the likelihood of a scoring opportunity resulting in a goal by comparing it to a large number of similar chances in the past. A very high xG value means that a chance was almost certain to produce a goal, whereas a very…

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Coefficient Blending — American Soccer Analysis – Football Article

As for the cause of this one-time discontinuity in xG, our model fits individual coefficients, or effects, to each season. This guarantees that the sum of goals is equal to the sum of xGoals in any given year, which helps to normalize things like xGD from season to season. Because expected goals are a key part of our predictive models, controlling for the goal scoring environment of a given season is important. Baseball fans out there may notice this is…

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